{"id":390,"date":"2025-01-06T06:43:10","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T22:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.422kb.com\/?p=390"},"modified":"2025-01-06T06:43:10","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T22:43:10","slug":"4-alpha%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5%ef%bc%9a%e6%bb%9e%e6%b6%a8%e8%bf%98%e6%98%af%e8%a1%b0%e9%80%80%ef%bc%8c%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%9c%a8%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tidai.net\/?p=390","title":{"rendered":"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"art_tit\">4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/h1>\n<div class=\"content_text\">\n<h2 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class=\"customstyle_text\">\n<li>\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u88c2\u75d5\uff1a\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\u66b4\u8dcc\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u53e0\u52a0\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7a0e\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u201c\u786c\u7740\u9646\u201d\u62c5\u5fe7\u52a0\u5267\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>AI\u00a0\u53d9\u4e8b\u52a8\u6447\uff1a\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u8d22\u62a5\u540e\u201cScaling Law\u00a0\u5931\u6548\u201d\u4e89\u8bae\u3001OpenAI\u00a0\u6280\u672f\u8fed\u4ee3\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u00a0AI\u00a0\u5546\u4e1a\u5316\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u7684\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u7b97\u529b\u677f\u5757\uff09\u906d\u9047\u629b\u552e\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u00a0\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\uff1aCME\u00a0\u671f\u8d27\u00a0Backwardation\u00a0\u7ed3\u6784\u524a\u5f31\u5957\u5229\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u53e0\u52a0\u00a0ETF\u00a0\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u51fa\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4e0e\u7f8e\u80a1\u540c\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8d2a\u5a6a\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u8fdb\u5165\u6781\u5ea6\u6050\u614c\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 class=\"customstyle_text\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"customstyle_text\">\u6570\u636e\u7126\u70b9\uff1a\u82e5\u00a02\u00a0\u6708\u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u8d85\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u6216\u00a0ISM\u00a0\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u00a0PMI\u00a0\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5c06\u5f3a\u5316\u8870\u9000\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u7f8e\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u884c\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u627f\u538b\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u8d85\u9884\u671f\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u77ed\u6682\u4fee\u590d\u201c\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u201d\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u653f\u7b56\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7a0e\u7ec6\u8282\u3001\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u8868\u6001\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5bf9\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u5e02\u573a\u5267\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>\u7b56\u7565\u5efa\u8bae\uff1a\u9632\u5fa1\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff0c\u4f3a\u673a\u53cd\u51fb\u3002\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u77ed\u671f\u629b\u538b\u6e90\u4e8e\u6760\u6746\u8d44\u91d1\u64a4\u79bb\uff0c\u4f46\u76d1\u7ba1\u677e\u7ed1\u548c\u6280\u672f\u521b\u65b0\u4ecd\u652f\u6491\u957f\u671f\u589e\u957f\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"customstyle_text\" data-img-size-val=\"636,563\">\n<p class=\"img-desc customstyle_text\">Source\uff1aGurufocus<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5229\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u5b9a\u4ef7\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13<\/strong>\u3002\u4ece\u6570\u636e\u770b\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u9690\u542b\u5229\u7387\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u00a02\u00a0\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0e\u8861\u91cf\u77ed\u671f\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\u7684\u00a0SOFR\u00a0\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u5f02\u52a8\uff0c\u4f46\u672c\u5468\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7a0e\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u00a02\u00a0\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8fc5\u901f\u8d70\u4f4e\uff0c\u5e76\u62c9\u5f00\u4e0e\u77ed\u671f\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5229\u5dee\uff1b\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u00a010\u00a0\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5f00\u59cb\u660e\u663e\u4f4e\u4e8e\u00a0SOFR\u00a0\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\" src=\"https:\/\/s2.flink2.com\/news\/other\/20250304\/9d6ebd875fce7181d0960fdcba50fe40.jpg\" data-img-size-val=\"717,491\" title=\"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"img-desc customstyle_text\">\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u53d8\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u964d\u606f\u9884\u671f\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f53\u77ed\u671f\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u663e\u8457\u9ad8\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u672c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5c3e\u58f0\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u77ed\u671f\u878d\u8d44\u5229\u7387\u5e76\u672a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4ecd\u65e7\u901a\u8fc7\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u64cd\u4f5c\u7ba1\u7406\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u786e\u4fdd\u77ed\u671f\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u7ef4\u6301\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7d27\u7f29\u6027\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u5e02\u573a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u62a2\u8dd1\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u901a\u80c0\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u659c\u7387\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u6d53\u539a\u3002\u5982\u56fe\u8868\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u00a010\u00a0\u5e74\u671f\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\u659c\u7387\u660e\u663e\u66f4\u9661\u5ced\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u5feb\u901f\u6d8c\u5165\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u907f\u9669\u60c5\u7eea\u6d53\u539a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5728\u77ed\u7aef\u5229\u7387\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u901a\u8fc7\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7ba1\u7406\u786e\u4fdd\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u7684\u7d27\u7f29\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3001\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5173\u7a0e\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u7b49\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u5b9a\u4ef7\u201c\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u88ab\u8feb\u964d\u606f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u5e02\u573a\u56de\u987e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u573a\u770b\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u5dee\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53d1\u9175\u4e0b\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u5e02\u573a\u629b\u552e\u4ecd\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0cVIX\u00a0\u6307\u6570\u6301\u7eed\u7ef4\u6301\u00a019\u00a0\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5b9a\u4ef7\u6108\u52a0\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4ece\u901a\u80c0\u5f00\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u8f6c\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5468\u4e8c\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\u66f4\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e09\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u5927\u964d\u5e45\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u62c5\u5fe7\u518d\u6b21\u7b3c\u7f69\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u4fc3\u4f7f\u629b\u552e\u548c\u505a\u7a7a\u6d3b\u52a8\u66f4\u52a0\u5267\u70c8\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u5468\u4e94\u00a0PCE\u00a0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u51fa\u7089\uff0c\u7f13\u548c\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u5468\u4e94\u6536\u4e8e\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\" src=\"https:\/\/s2.flink2.com\/news\/other\/20250304\/f0406de66892884bc2354cffb6497f9d.jpg\" data-img-size-val=\"919,561\" title=\"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe1\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"img-desc customstyle_text\">Source\uff1aNBER<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4ece\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u53bb\u770b\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u53d8\u5dee\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6570\u636e\u83ab\u8fc7\u4e8e\u82f1\u4f1f\u8fbe\u7684\u8d22\u62a5\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8d22\u62a5\u4e1a\u7ee9\u8868\u73b0\u4eae\u773c\uff0c\u4f46\u201cScaling Law\u201d\u5931\u6548\u95ee\u9898\u518d\u6b21\u88ab\u5e02\u573a\u653e\u5927\uff0cAI\u00a0\u53d9\u4e8b\u9762\u4e34\u6781\u5927\u8003\u9a8c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u00a0OpenAI\u00a0\u63a8\u51fa\u00a0ChatGpt\u00a04.5\u00a0\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u62c5\u5fe7\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u6210\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u00a0AI\u00a0\u4e3b\u7ebf\u906d\u5230\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u7ed9\u51fa\u653e\u7f13\u9884\u671f\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6b63\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u5168\u9762\u7684\u9884\u671f\u8c03\u6574\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5728\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u770b\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u53ef\u8c13\u9634\u4e91\u5bc6\u5e03\u7684\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u00a0Bybit\u00a0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u573a\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u53d8\u5dee\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u907f\u9669\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u52a0\u5bc6\u884c\u4e1a\u906d\u9047\u6781\u5927\u56de\u64a4\uff0c\u8d2a\u5a6a\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6570\u4e00\u5ea6\u8dcc\u7834\u00a015\u00a0\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u6781\u5ea6\u6050\u614c\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u540c\u524d\u6587\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u8fb9\u9645\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u548c\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u5e02\u573a\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u56e0\u8870\u9000\u62c5\u5fe7\u800c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u964d\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8f83\u5927\u63d0\u632f\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u8d44\u91d1\u66f4\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4ece\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u8d44\u4ea7\u64a4\u51fa\uff0c\u8f6c\u5411\u5177\u6709\u6b63\u00a0Carry\u00a0\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u56fd\u503a\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89c2\u6d4b\u00a0BTC\u00a0\u7684\u8bdd\uff0cCME\u00a0\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u4e0e\u73b0\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u7f3a\u53e3\u8fc5\u901f\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u00a0Backwardation\u00a0\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u6784\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5bf9\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u73b0\u8d27\u00a0ETF CME\u00a0\u671f\u8d27\u8fdb\u884c\u57fa\u5dee\u5957\u5229\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u5bf9\u6bd4\u00a04%\u00a0\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\uff0c\u4e3a\u4f55\u672c\u5468\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u00a0ETF\u00a0\u8d44\u91d1\u906d\u9047\u5927\u91cf\u6d41\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6574\u4e2a\u4f20\u5bfc\u903b\u8f91\u662f\uff1a\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fe7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000-\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u4e0b\u964d-\u8d44\u91d1\u4ece\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u5e02\u573a\u64a4\u51fa-\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u5f00\u59cb\u64a4\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u57fa\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613-ETF\u00a0\u8d44\u91d1\u6d41\u51fa-\u52a0\u5267\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7-\u629b\u552e\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u5728\u5468\u4e94\u00a0PCE\u00a0\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7f13\u548c\u4e0b\uff0c\u53d7\u76ca\u4e8e\u98ce\u9669\u504f\u597d\u7684\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u6240\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"customstyle_text\">\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u4e9a\u7279\u5170\u5927\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u00a0GDP NOW\u00a0\u9884\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u5c06\u00a02025\u00a0\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fd\u00a0GDP\uff08\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u8c03\u6574\u540e\uff09\u6570\u636e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a-1.5%\u00a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\" src=\"https:\/\/s2.flink2.com\/news\/other\/20250304\/afb89e5715eb046b8e3f85e2ae29cb98.jpg\" data-img-size-val=\"699,464\" title=\"4 Alpha\u5b8f\u89c2\u5468\u62a5\uff1a\u6ede\u6da8\u8fd8\u662f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u63d2\u56fe2\" 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